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Episode 612: What Life After Rule Changes Would Look Like
Date February 11, 2015 Summary Ben and Sam talk to Russell Carleton about the possible fallout from rules changes intended to shorten games and increase offense, then Play Index replacement players and answer emails about breakouts and pitch clocks. Topics * Examining consequences of potential MLB rule changes * Requiring relievers to face at least three batters * Pace of play and length of games * Pitch clock * Adding the DH to the National League * Longtime replacement level players * Impact of a pitch clock on pitcher anxiety * Defining breakout vs. career years Intro Harry Chapin, "I Wonder What Would Happen to This World" Outro Episode outtake sound clip Email Questions * Patrick: "Today a certain Sam Miller gave a series of hot takes on Twitter regarding pedestrian safety and petty crime. I cannot disagree with these assertions, however it made me curious: is there a possibility that a pitch clock would create a similar twinge of anxiety in the pitcher and would this lead to an increase in mistake pitches? If so, what would you estimate would be the effect on offense league wide? Would it be perceptible?" * Eric (San Francisco, CA): "Last week's discussion of Corey Kluber got me wondering, do you have any ideas on how to distinguish a breakout season from a career year? Specifically, for players that have already had a few underwhelming major league seasons. Are there any indicators that you would use to posit that a great year was the first of many or instead that it was a peak performance? Obviously you can take age into account but then there are weird ones like Chris Davis collapsing or Marlon Byrd having what appears to be an actual breakout of sorts at age 35. I'm thinking specifically of Lucas Duda as a test case. If you had to bet on either greater than or equal to 2014 performance or regression, what would you use to make that call?" Play Index * The segment is inspired by listener Mikey who in the Facebook group noted that DJ LeMahieu has 0.0 bWAR through 1,300 career plate appearances. * Sam looks up players who have 0 career WAR through various stages of their careers. * Through 9 years of his career and 4,514 plate appearances Neifi Perez had 0 WAR. * Rafael Belliard had 0 WAR through 17 years of his career. Notes * Russell thinks that frequent commercial breaks during high leverage innings (as a result of several pitcher changes) could be a turn off to casual fans. * There are only 16 pitchers who currently have an average time between pitches of under 20 seconds. * Sam suggests that every 45 seconds, unless a pitch is thrown, a ball or strike is randomly called. * With a pitch clock on an 0-2 count it may be worth a pitcher taking more time and being assessed a 1 ball penalty than rushing the pitch. * Sam would look to extra base hit rate for hitters and pitch velocity for pitchers to distinguish between breakouts and indicators of a career year. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 612: What Life After Rule Changes Would Look Like * What if we changed the rules? by Russell Carleton * Neifi Perez: Bad baseball Hall of Famer by King Kaufman Category:Email Episodes Category:Episodes Category:Guest Episodes